Nearly 30% Of Americans Likely To Have Diabetes By 2050

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Main Category: Diabetes
Also Included In: Obesity / Weight Loss / Fitness
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The incidence of diabetes, mostly diabetes Type 2, is expected to rise from 8 newly diagnosed cases per thousand in 2008 to approximately 15 by the year 2050, researchers from the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) and Emory University report in an article published in Popular Health Metrics. Although a rise in diabetes type 2 incidence was expected, mainly because the number of obese and overweight people in America has been steadily rising, nobody expected estimates for the future to be so high, the authors wrote.

Approximately 1 in every 10 American adults currently has diabetes. There are several reasons why numbers are expected to rise, the report says: People are becoming fatter. Overweight/obesity are key risk factors for diabetes type 2.The percentage of the US population made up of minority groups known to have a higher risk of developing diabetes has been and will be growingPeople with diabetes in America are living longer thanks to better therapies and medicationsThe authors say their study is the most comprehensive yet on diabetes in America today and its expected incidence and prevalence during the coming decades. They gathered data from the 2000 Census as well as yearly updates up to 2007. They also incorporated specific data on minority groups, as well as individuals with pre-diabetes.

The economic toll of diabetes on the US economy in 2007 was over $174 billion - it is expected to grow considerably in the years and decades to come. Future policymakers need reliable and accurate estimates on the diabetes burden for proper planning of the country's future health care requirements and costs.

The authors estimate that the current 14% adult diabetes prevalence will rise to 21% by 2050 (diagnosed and undiagnosed cases). However, if they factor in longer life-spans for those with diabetes in the future as well as recent increases in the incidence of diabetes, the prevalence will possibly reach 33% by the middle of this century.

The authors wrote:

A middle-ground scenario projects a prevalence of 25% to 28% by 2050. Intervention can reduce, but not eliminate, increases in diabetes prevalence.

The researchers warn that in order to lessen the sheer size of the national diabetes burden in years to come, effective strategies will need to be put in place.

They added:

Our analysis suggests that widespread implementation of reasonably effective preventive interventions focused on high-risk subgroups of the population can considerably reduce, but not eliminate, future increases in diabetes prevalence.

Diabetes Type 1 - the person's pancreas produces no insulin - the beta cells have been destroyed. They need daily insulin injections. Diabetes Type 2 - the person's body cannot use the insulin properly, or does not produce enough. This type of diabetes usually emerges later in life and is largely caused by being overweight/obese. Insulin sensitivity goes down and the existing insulin cannot do its job (help get glucose into the body's cells). This causes two problems: 1. An accumulation of glucose in the blood. 2. Cells become starved of vital energy for growth. Gestational diabetes - diabetes that develops during pregnancy, and then goes away after the baby is born. The majority of people with diabetes have type 2. A considerable number of them have no symptoms early on, and only find out after some unrelated medical test, or when the disease has progressed further. According to WHO (World Health Organization), about half the people around the world with diabetes are unaware they have this life-threatening condition.

According to the American Medical Association (2007 figures): 17.9m people are diagnosed with diabetes5.7m people are undiagnosed with diabetes57m people have pre-diabetes1 in every 400 to 600 under 20-year olds have Type 1 diabetes2m adolescents have pre-diabetes186,300 (0.22%) people under 20 have diabetes11.5m women (10.2%) have diabetes23.5m (10.7%) of those over 20 have diabetes12m men (11.2%) have diabetes12.2m of those over 60 have diabetes"Projection of the year 2050 burden of diabetes in the US adult population: dynamic modeling of incidence, mortality, and prediabetes prevalence"
James P Boyle, Theodore J Thompson, Edward W Gregg, Lawrence E Barker and David F Williamson
Population Health Metrics 2010, 8:29doi:10.1186/1478-7954-8-29

Written by Christian Nordqvist
Copyright: Medical News Today
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posted by AC on 22 Oct 2010 at 2:03 pm

Obviously the solution is more soy and high fructose corn sweetener in our food.

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